Journal of Marine Sciences and Technology for Sustainable Development

Journal of Marine Sciences and Technology for Sustainable Development

Investigation of the Seismicity of the Makran Subduction Zone and the Probability of Tsunami Occurrence

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Nasim Elyaspour 1
AzizOllah Tajvar 2
1 Education and Training Center, Chabahar Free Zone, Chabahar, Iran
2 Department of Oceanography, Faculty of Marine Science, Chabahar Maritime University, Chabahar, Iran
10.22034/jmstsd.2026.577729.1000
Abstract
The north-dipping subduction of the Arabian Plate beneath the Central Iran and Afghan blocks formed the MSZ during the Cretaceous and continues today. This subduction, combined with the northward plate motion and resulting compressive stress, drives earthquakes and tsunamis in the northern Indian Ocean and along the Makran coasts in Iran and Pakistan. GPS data indicate that convergence rates increase from 35.5 to 36.5 mm/year in western Makran to 40 to 42 mm/year in the east, resulting in distinct seismic patterns in the region. Based on seismic data and the seismic hazard map of the Makran coast, the tectonic coefficient in Western Makran is higher than in Eastern Makran, indicating a higher ratio of small to large earthquakes in the west. While Western Makran experiences more small earthquakes, large earthquakes are less frequent. In contrast, Eastern Makran exhibits a lower ratio of small-to-large earthquakes. Overall, seismic hazard is more pronounced in Eastern Makran due to the concentration of seismic activity, consistent with the region’s fault movement. The most recent major tsunami, on 28 November 1945, followed an 8.1 magnitude earthquake in eastern Makran, killing at least 4,000 people. This spatial variation in seismicity may reflect segmentation of the subduction zone or a locked plate boundary in the east, which generates great earthquakes with long recurrence intervals.

Graphical Abstract

Investigation of the Seismicity of the Makran Subduction Zone and the Probability of Tsunami Occurrence

Highlights

  • Seismicity of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) was evaluated using historical and instrumental earthquake records.
  • Western and Eastern Makran exhibit distinct Gutenberg– Richter parameters and earthquake recurrence intervals.
  • Eastern Makran has higher seismic and tsunami hazard due to more frequent large earthquakes.
  • Western Makran may represent a locked megathrust capable of generating rare but devastating earthquakes.Tsunami propagation is strongly controlled by offshore bathymetry, enhancing coastal wave heights.

Keywords
Tsunami
Earthquake
Thrust Faults
Makran Subduction Zone
Subjects
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Journal of Marine Sciences and Technology for Sustainable Development
Volume 1, Issue 1
Sec. A: Engineering and Technologies
June 2026

  • Received date 23 February 2026
  • Revised date 15 March 2026
  • Accepted date 30 March 2026
  • Available online date 01 June 2026